The Ninja and Tom's 2009 MLB Preview - American League
Here is part 2 of Tom and I's 2009 MLB preview. Today, we're previewing the American League. If you missed yesterday's National League preview (probably) and you care (probably not), click here.
NINJA
AL WEST
Oakland Athletics
LA Angels of Anaheim (very weird to actually write out)
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
This is another division that I feel like can be won with 85 games. This offseason, Billy Beane pretty much told 'Moneyball' to fuck itself, trading for Matt Holliday and signing Jason Giambi back to the area where he originally met and fell in love with steroids, in addition to former-future-Hall-of-Famer-and-now-worse-than-about-90%-of-the-league Nomar Garciaparra. All of a sudden, this offense is stacked, at least on paper. Giambi had an underrated season last year in the wake of his non-apology about his aforementioned sexual liasons with the syringe. Eric Chavez and Jack Cust are both pretty good offensive players. I guess Daric Barton still has the potential to be a wunderkind of sorts. I do worry about Holliday's transition to the AL, however. His home and road splits from the last couple of years are Michael Jackson child/adult different, and moving to the better league seems like a daunting challenge. Justin Duchscherer is underrated at the beginning of the rotation, however, and their ragtag group of starters after him are apparently pretty good.
Besides, their competition in the division is stale. The LA Angels of Anaheim (still absurd to write out. Imagine if the Red Sox were the Boston Red Sox of Winthrop?) REALLY needed to sign Mark Teixeira. Seriously, they needed to throw the book at him, and they didn't. Now their offense is in the lower half of the AL, since their studs refuse to develop (ok, it's THIS season where Howie Kendrick is above average. Watch. Here it is. It's coming. Seriously.) The rotation is still pretty good, but Joe Saunders isn't nearly as good a pitcher as his 2008 season suggested, and their record-breaking (albeit overrated) closer is in New York. Not even the vaunted managerial tactics of Mike Scioscia, it seems, can get this team more than 82ish wins.
Texas will be battling with Colorado to see who can reach 1,000 runs given up quicker. Seattle is, on paper, actually worse than last year's team. I bet Ichiro just rants to himself in the dugout these days. There's no doubt this conversation happens multiple times this year between he and new Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu (who, for clarification's sake, is from Oregon):
Wakamatsu: So yeah, if you could try to bunt Betancourt over to second on this at-bat, that would be wonderful.
Ichiro (in Japanese): Please fuck yourself. Kill me now.
Wakamatsu: Great!
TOM
Los Angeles California Angels of Disneyland (Much more fun to write)
Oakland/Friedmont/San Jose Athletics
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
I think we get one more year of the Angels at the top - albeit less wins, but still, maybe low 90s, which translates anywhere else into the league as like 82 wins (they don't allow uppers anymore. What'd you think, the Angels were just that good at home?). Oakland on paper is very good, but they're not contenders. This is for a reason, and the reason is that Billy Beane is still beyond fucking brilliant. He knows this team is one year away just as he's aware that this team can't seem to find a city in California to take them. The Holliday and Giambi signings are gunna bring people to ballpark, and then they are going to bring an assload of prospects mid season. Next year when the Angels are too busy tied up with trying to resign Lackey and figuring out what to do with the lumbering carcass of Vlad, the A's will be able to take over this division. Wait till Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill join this rotation.
I've done this rant before but we have to talk about it: What the fuck, Texas? They're the Nationals of the AL; if a decent GM ran this team they'd have won a series by now. Do you know what this team looks like if they had only pulled off the Teixera trade (who happened to be blocking Adrian Gonzalez). Here's your 2009 Rangers - 1b Gonzalez 2b Kinsler SS Young 3b Rodriguez Catcher Teagarden/Saltalamacchia, CF Hamilton, LF/RF who cares. Look at the rest of that lineup. Plus John Danks and Chris Young at the top of the rotation.The Hamilton trade could go either way, you either have a great outfielder or a great young pitcher, win win. This team would have cost a whopping 8 million more than the bucket of shit they're currently putting on the field thanks to the bloated Padilla and Millwood contracts. I think the 5 postseasons they would have been going to would have paid for the rest of Arod's absurd contract. With Nefali Feliz and Derek Holland on the way this might be the best team we'll never ever see.
Seattle's going to compete for the worst record this year, after which Ichiro will present a confused Wakamatsu with a bandanna, a Japanese flag and a samurai sword.
NINJA
Your point about Oakland and Billy Beane is valid, but here's three counterpoints: 1) Oakland has, like, nine fans anyway for a 34879323872983843723 seat stadium. Matt Holliday will get all nine fans to come, but that still leaves 34879323872983843714 seats. 2) So Beane knows that Matt Holliday won't be that good? I guess he must. 3) Even if the A's are "a year away", and they might be, I think the LA Angels of Anaheim with Burbank among Long Beach by Santa Monica take a pretty drastic step back this year. Oakland might finish with only 86 or 87 wins, but I think LA only has 83 or 84. Mediocrity gets the job done in this division.
The Texas point is a good one. It goes to show you - if you have a degree in economics, and like sports a lot, you are probably more qualified to run a sports franchise than 75% of current GMs. The NBA is much worse at this than MLB, by the way. You think John Hart is bad? Scott Layden WISHES he was John Hart. Scott Layden's WIFE wishes he was John Hart. Scott Layden's wife pretends she's asleep when he comes home every night.
TOM
AL CENTRAL
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
This division is just going to rock your face off all summer. It's the antithesis of the NL Central. I'm both sad and happy that my team is not in this division. Any team could win this thing...I'm even looking at you, KC. In fact, I almost went for something controversial and just put them at the top for the hell of it. I had to go with Cleveland; it's one of the most improved teams in baseball and it was already an underachieving team until the second half. If Carmona puts it together and Lee only takes a mild step back from pitching on what we can only assume was super-steroids, then I don't see why this team couldn't compete with anyone. Pronk and Martinez have to be better than they were last year. Oh, and reason #3,462 of why I hate the Cubs: really, Hendry? Derosa and Wood > Milton Bradley. It's a simple equation. I love Minnesota. The Twins contend every year, they're run phenomenally, they scout the hell out of players, and are just a bunch of fun to watch. There's a lot of pitching on that team and though they didn't really add much, they got a year older which might just be enough to get them to the top. Delmon Young rebounds, there, that's my fantasy advice. Every year I look at what Kenny Williams does and I conclude that he's an idiot. Then every year Chicago's pretty good. I didn't really get the McCarthy/Danks move at the time and I don't really get the Vasquez trade either, but in Kenny I'm starting to trust. The difference between these three teams is definitely going to be one or two games.
Oh Dayton, you told us to believe, so let's start believing. As a former coach of another Kansas City team once said "WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!!!!" Greinke and Meche are a legit one two. Soria might be third or fourth best closer in baseball. Gordan's definitely going to bust out, not George Brett bust out of the dugout pine tar style, but bust out none the less. Jose Guillen gets a lot of shit for that contract but he's going to put up decent enough number and probably get into a fight with like 15 umps ( it's not roid rage if the ump made a bad call, alright). Coviello's going to look great in a powder blue do-rag.
Detroit's at the bottom not because of their lack of talent. No, they're at the bottom because their mid-summer firesale is going to be beyond epic. Pick a player you like on Detroit, he may be on your team in three months. I hope they do a low end used car dealership commercial with Leyland in a Cowboy hat. "WOOOOOOOOOOOEEEEEE THIS ONE HERE'S A BEAUT. His name's Miggy, only had 2 previous owners and can out eat most barnyard animals. He can be yours for practically nothing!! How can I afford to give this away for such insane prices!?! Because our team's in the worst city this side of Guadalajara!"
NINJA
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
Buster Olney, Keith Law, Rob Neyer, Steve Phillips, Jayson Stark, and every other ESPN analyst has pretty much slobbered over this Indians team for three or four years, and they WERE really good in '07, taking the Sox to 7 games in the LCS after holding a 3-1 lead. Grady Sizemore had the best statistical year of anyone in the AL last year, Cliff Lee was other-worldly, and the rest of the team sucked SO much that they weren't even close to the playoffs last year. That said, Joe Borowski by himself cost this team approximately 39383829838 games last year, and that's a whole lot. Kerry Wood, provided he can stay healthy (also read as 'Terrell Owens, provided he can stay mentally stable,'), wins them at least five of those games back, right? I actually think we can stick a fork in Pronk, but Gonzo's way better than last year, and Sizemore's signing yearbooks, getting elected to StuCo and looking to get laid after prom (he's still young), so we can only expect more great things from him.
As a Red Sox fan, I always, always always hate playing the Twins. They're always sneakily good, and as long as the fine citizens of Minneapolis refuse to pay for a new stadium, the Metrodome remains a really, really tough place to play. I want to pick them to win the division, but the rotation behind Mr. Liriano is a little thin despite Joe Nathan backing them up.
I do think you're underselling the worst city in America's professional baseball franchise a little bit. Their offense is still astounding on paper, and I think they're good for 85 wins, and close enough to first place on July 31st that they'll keep everyone. That said, they're gonna have to win a whole lot of games 13 to 11. Justin Verlander answered a whole lot of diluted Yankee fans' hypothetical "Wait, but what if Kyle Farnsworth was made into a starter?" questions last year.
I agree with your Royals assessment - they are improved, and if they were in either West division, they would compete. But they're not, so they won't. And the White Sox are the Spurs of the MLB in that they both have Tim Duncan and they're both really old. ...What? The White Sox don't have Tim Duncan? Oh. I guess they're just really old, then. My bad.
Tom
The pending horror show that will be the attendance rates at many of American's fine ballparks is going to make this summer's trade deadline hilarious. I think unless Detroit's in first place, or like a game away you can kiss Magglio, Sheffield, Nate Robertson (not that losing him is a great loss), and maybe Granderson, Willis or Cabrera goodbye. And yes, Chicago is getting old, but Williams is doing his best to turn that around with Danks, Aramis and Josh Fields. Which of course also means Jermaine Dye, Jimmy Thome, Paul Konerko are also shipping out mid season. Now that I think about it, after July this division is going to look a whole lot shittier.
NINJA
Attendance rates? Horror show? Easy, Tom - it's not like I've been unemployed and living at home for ten months! Jeez.
AL EAST
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
When the Yanks threw 161 million at Sabathia, I said, in my standard Red Sox rationalization vernacular, "Sweet! He's gonna be 300 pounds by 2011 and his arm already has 384982034389039 (three straight divisions with ridiculously high random numbers without commas! Suck it!) pitches on it. We're gold." When the Yanks threw 82 million at A.J. Burnett, I said, in my standard Red Sox rationalization vernacular, "HA! Douche bags. You would think they learned their lesson from Carl Pavano!" When the Yanks threw 160 million at Mark Teixeira, I said, in my standard Red Sox rationalization vernacular, "...Fuck." If the new Yankee Stadium really is exactly like the old Yankee Stadium, then there's no reason the man can't hit 50 home runs for the next eight years. And that. Fucking. Blooowwwwwsssss. I think the Red Sox's additions are underrated, and I think they might have a better team on paper than the Yankees, but they've only finished ahead of those lovely twenty-five gentlemen from the Bronx in 2007 and 2008, despite the fact that they've probably had a better (on paper) team since 2003. I think the Yanks get around 97ish wins, and I think the Sox have around 94-95. It will be a great race.
I like Tampa, and their team is young and extremely talented...but I think they played ever-so-slightly over their heads last year. Yes, now they have David Price for a full season, and they stole Pat Burrell from AAAA...but I like them as a strong-but-semi-distant third. 88-90 wins. Think of it like when BC beat Carolina at Carolina, got their wangs stroked for three days, and lost to Harvard at home, except much, much better than that.
The Toronto Roy Halladays seem to have plateaued at 80 wins. Baltimore still can't pitch.
TOM
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
Ok, yes, this sounds like me being a homer, but I'm not the only one who thinks this. See, I'm not crazy.There's a logical reason why I think the Sox are going to pull this oneout. The Yankees have a lot more problems than I think people arewilling to admit or notice. That was not such a hot offense last year.And they lost Abreu and the Giambino - 200 RBIs and 50 hrs. Firstbaseman whose name I don't know how to spell (FBWNIDKHS) and NickSwisher are not going to replace that. Damon and Nady played out oftheir minds last year and I don't know if that's happening again.FBWNIDKHS is positively awful to start off the year and Mr. Aprilhimself is getting his hip fixed, so it could be a rough first month.Sabathia's a beast and there's no reason he won't be this year but AJBurnett has an arm made out of glass and cotton. Wang returning to formand Joba finally realizing his potential are the keys to the season,because there's not a tremendous amount of depth behind them in IanKennedy and Kei Igawa. The bullpen might be an issue or it could begreat. Defense is not going to be the Yankees forte.
Now, the case for the Sox is simple. They came one game away from theWorld Series with an injured Mike Lowell, David Ortiz and Josh Beckettand absolutley zero bench. Ortiz looks skinny and has his wristrepaired. Though I doubt Lowell's going to be very productive, the Soxhave tremendous finacial flexibility and there's no way they don't takea big contract off a struggling team midseason. Beckett looks like he'sback and we literally have nine guys who could start if need be. Thebullpen has a chance to be historically good. Lopez to Delcarmen toSaito to Masterson to Ramirez to Okajima to Paplebon is boner popping.Yes, there are a lot of questions, but if half our bargain shoppingworks out, the Sox are pretty damn good.
Tampa's good,yes. But I see a Colorado-esque drop-off here. Those kids were playingout of their minds last year and I don't think that the bullpen isrealllllly that good. It looked way better than it should have lastyear. Troy Percival's keeping that job for 19 seconds. I seeregressions by a couple of the starters, too. Still, we're probablygetting high 80s low 90s wins out of this team.
TheOrioles are about 3 years away from being good, which is just unfair.We need to go back to the old method AL and NL, and none of thisdivision crap. I'm literally going to be tearing my hair out everynight in 2012. An outfield of Jones, Markakis and Pie has thepotential to be amazing. We all know Wieters is going to be very good.They still have Mora and Roberts who are good ball players. ChrisTillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta are all top flight prospects andcould make it up by the end of the year to join Hendrickson and Guthrie.
Toronto is beyond awful - they were carried by pitching last year andnow half the staff is hurt. Besides Rios and Wells, everyone on thisteam is mediocre (McDonald and Barajas), fading (looking at you Rolenand Overbay) or Joe Inglett? Who?? JP Ricciardi must love those Wellsand BJ Ryan contracts right now. Wait, 18 million a year to anunderrated player you just made overrated? SURE! 9 Mil to a fat guywith a soul patch who had one good year? SUREEE!! Hey JP you probablyshould have spent less time arguing with Adam Dunn and more timerealizing what was going on in the four paragraphs above this.
NINJA
Tolstoy,
I do think our local nine could take the division. Your arguments arestrong, and NO ONE enjoys the statistical stylings of Nate Silver morethan I do. I hit fivethirtyeight.com more than Brett Myershits...gatorade coolers. And his wife. But this current Red Sox clubseems made for October, not May. Depth is key. Like I said, it's gonnabe fun.
PICKS
NINJA
MVP: Mark Teixeira
CY YOUNG: Jon Lester
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Matt Wieters
New York over Oakland in 5, Boston over Cleveland in 4, Boston over New York in 7
WORLD SERIES: Boston over Chicago in 5
TOM
MVP: Grady Sizemore
CY YOUNG: John Lackey
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: David Price
New York over Cleveland in 5, Boston over LA of Anaheim in 3, Boston over New York in 7
WORLD SERIES: Boston over Philadelphia in 6
NINJA
AL WEST
Oakland Athletics
LA Angels of Anaheim (very weird to actually write out)
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
This is another division that I feel like can be won with 85 games. This offseason, Billy Beane pretty much told 'Moneyball' to fuck itself, trading for Matt Holliday and signing Jason Giambi back to the area where he originally met and fell in love with steroids, in addition to former-future-Hall-of-Famer-and-now-worse-than-about-90%-of-the-league Nomar Garciaparra. All of a sudden, this offense is stacked, at least on paper. Giambi had an underrated season last year in the wake of his non-apology about his aforementioned sexual liasons with the syringe. Eric Chavez and Jack Cust are both pretty good offensive players. I guess Daric Barton still has the potential to be a wunderkind of sorts. I do worry about Holliday's transition to the AL, however. His home and road splits from the last couple of years are Michael Jackson child/adult different, and moving to the better league seems like a daunting challenge. Justin Duchscherer is underrated at the beginning of the rotation, however, and their ragtag group of starters after him are apparently pretty good.
Besides, their competition in the division is stale. The LA Angels of Anaheim (still absurd to write out. Imagine if the Red Sox were the Boston Red Sox of Winthrop?) REALLY needed to sign Mark Teixeira. Seriously, they needed to throw the book at him, and they didn't. Now their offense is in the lower half of the AL, since their studs refuse to develop (ok, it's THIS season where Howie Kendrick is above average. Watch. Here it is. It's coming. Seriously.) The rotation is still pretty good, but Joe Saunders isn't nearly as good a pitcher as his 2008 season suggested, and their record-breaking (albeit overrated) closer is in New York. Not even the vaunted managerial tactics of Mike Scioscia, it seems, can get this team more than 82ish wins.
Texas will be battling with Colorado to see who can reach 1,000 runs given up quicker. Seattle is, on paper, actually worse than last year's team. I bet Ichiro just rants to himself in the dugout these days. There's no doubt this conversation happens multiple times this year between he and new Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu (who, for clarification's sake, is from Oregon):
Wakamatsu: So yeah, if you could try to bunt Betancourt over to second on this at-bat, that would be wonderful.
Ichiro (in Japanese): Please fuck yourself. Kill me now.
Wakamatsu: Great!
TOM
Los Angeles California Angels of Disneyland (Much more fun to write)
Oakland/Friedmont/San Jose Athletics
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
I think we get one more year of the Angels at the top - albeit less wins, but still, maybe low 90s, which translates anywhere else into the league as like 82 wins (they don't allow uppers anymore. What'd you think, the Angels were just that good at home?). Oakland on paper is very good, but they're not contenders. This is for a reason, and the reason is that Billy Beane is still beyond fucking brilliant. He knows this team is one year away just as he's aware that this team can't seem to find a city in California to take them. The Holliday and Giambi signings are gunna bring people to ballpark, and then they are going to bring an assload of prospects mid season. Next year when the Angels are too busy tied up with trying to resign Lackey and figuring out what to do with the lumbering carcass of Vlad, the A's will be able to take over this division. Wait till Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill join this rotation.
I've done this rant before but we have to talk about it: What the fuck, Texas? They're the Nationals of the AL; if a decent GM ran this team they'd have won a series by now. Do you know what this team looks like if they had only pulled off the Teixera trade (who happened to be blocking Adrian Gonzalez). Here's your 2009 Rangers - 1b Gonzalez 2b Kinsler SS Young 3b Rodriguez Catcher Teagarden/Saltalamacchia, CF Hamilton, LF/RF who cares. Look at the rest of that lineup. Plus John Danks and Chris Young at the top of the rotation.The Hamilton trade could go either way, you either have a great outfielder or a great young pitcher, win win. This team would have cost a whopping 8 million more than the bucket of shit they're currently putting on the field thanks to the bloated Padilla and Millwood contracts. I think the 5 postseasons they would have been going to would have paid for the rest of Arod's absurd contract. With Nefali Feliz and Derek Holland on the way this might be the best team we'll never ever see.
Seattle's going to compete for the worst record this year, after which Ichiro will present a confused Wakamatsu with a bandanna, a Japanese flag and a samurai sword.
NINJA
Your point about Oakland and Billy Beane is valid, but here's three counterpoints: 1) Oakland has, like, nine fans anyway for a 34879323872983843723 seat stadium. Matt Holliday will get all nine fans to come, but that still leaves 34879323872983843714 seats. 2) So Beane knows that Matt Holliday won't be that good? I guess he must. 3) Even if the A's are "a year away", and they might be, I think the LA Angels of Anaheim with Burbank among Long Beach by Santa Monica take a pretty drastic step back this year. Oakland might finish with only 86 or 87 wins, but I think LA only has 83 or 84. Mediocrity gets the job done in this division.
The Texas point is a good one. It goes to show you - if you have a degree in economics, and like sports a lot, you are probably more qualified to run a sports franchise than 75% of current GMs. The NBA is much worse at this than MLB, by the way. You think John Hart is bad? Scott Layden WISHES he was John Hart. Scott Layden's WIFE wishes he was John Hart. Scott Layden's wife pretends she's asleep when he comes home every night.
TOM
AL CENTRAL
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
This division is just going to rock your face off all summer. It's the antithesis of the NL Central. I'm both sad and happy that my team is not in this division. Any team could win this thing...I'm even looking at you, KC. In fact, I almost went for something controversial and just put them at the top for the hell of it. I had to go with Cleveland; it's one of the most improved teams in baseball and it was already an underachieving team until the second half. If Carmona puts it together and Lee only takes a mild step back from pitching on what we can only assume was super-steroids, then I don't see why this team couldn't compete with anyone. Pronk and Martinez have to be better than they were last year. Oh, and reason #3,462 of why I hate the Cubs: really, Hendry? Derosa and Wood > Milton Bradley. It's a simple equation. I love Minnesota. The Twins contend every year, they're run phenomenally, they scout the hell out of players, and are just a bunch of fun to watch. There's a lot of pitching on that team and though they didn't really add much, they got a year older which might just be enough to get them to the top. Delmon Young rebounds, there, that's my fantasy advice. Every year I look at what Kenny Williams does and I conclude that he's an idiot. Then every year Chicago's pretty good. I didn't really get the McCarthy/Danks move at the time and I don't really get the Vasquez trade either, but in Kenny I'm starting to trust. The difference between these three teams is definitely going to be one or two games.
Oh Dayton, you told us to believe, so let's start believing. As a former coach of another Kansas City team once said "WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!!!!" Greinke and Meche are a legit one two. Soria might be third or fourth best closer in baseball. Gordan's definitely going to bust out, not George Brett bust out of the dugout pine tar style, but bust out none the less. Jose Guillen gets a lot of shit for that contract but he's going to put up decent enough number and probably get into a fight with like 15 umps ( it's not roid rage if the ump made a bad call, alright). Coviello's going to look great in a powder blue do-rag.
Detroit's at the bottom not because of their lack of talent. No, they're at the bottom because their mid-summer firesale is going to be beyond epic. Pick a player you like on Detroit, he may be on your team in three months. I hope they do a low end used car dealership commercial with Leyland in a Cowboy hat. "WOOOOOOOOOOOEEEEEE THIS ONE HERE'S A BEAUT. His name's Miggy, only had 2 previous owners and can out eat most barnyard animals. He can be yours for practically nothing!! How can I afford to give this away for such insane prices!?! Because our team's in the worst city this side of Guadalajara!"
NINJA
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
Buster Olney, Keith Law, Rob Neyer, Steve Phillips, Jayson Stark, and every other ESPN analyst has pretty much slobbered over this Indians team for three or four years, and they WERE really good in '07, taking the Sox to 7 games in the LCS after holding a 3-1 lead. Grady Sizemore had the best statistical year of anyone in the AL last year, Cliff Lee was other-worldly, and the rest of the team sucked SO much that they weren't even close to the playoffs last year. That said, Joe Borowski by himself cost this team approximately 39383829838 games last year, and that's a whole lot. Kerry Wood, provided he can stay healthy (also read as 'Terrell Owens, provided he can stay mentally stable,'), wins them at least five of those games back, right? I actually think we can stick a fork in Pronk, but Gonzo's way better than last year, and Sizemore's signing yearbooks, getting elected to StuCo and looking to get laid after prom (he's still young), so we can only expect more great things from him.
As a Red Sox fan, I always, always always hate playing the Twins. They're always sneakily good, and as long as the fine citizens of Minneapolis refuse to pay for a new stadium, the Metrodome remains a really, really tough place to play. I want to pick them to win the division, but the rotation behind Mr. Liriano is a little thin despite Joe Nathan backing them up.
I do think you're underselling the worst city in America's professional baseball franchise a little bit. Their offense is still astounding on paper, and I think they're good for 85 wins, and close enough to first place on July 31st that they'll keep everyone. That said, they're gonna have to win a whole lot of games 13 to 11. Justin Verlander answered a whole lot of diluted Yankee fans' hypothetical "Wait, but what if Kyle Farnsworth was made into a starter?" questions last year.
I agree with your Royals assessment - they are improved, and if they were in either West division, they would compete. But they're not, so they won't. And the White Sox are the Spurs of the MLB in that they both have Tim Duncan and they're both really old. ...What? The White Sox don't have Tim Duncan? Oh. I guess they're just really old, then. My bad.
Tom
The pending horror show that will be the attendance rates at many of American's fine ballparks is going to make this summer's trade deadline hilarious. I think unless Detroit's in first place, or like a game away you can kiss Magglio, Sheffield, Nate Robertson (not that losing him is a great loss), and maybe Granderson, Willis or Cabrera goodbye. And yes, Chicago is getting old, but Williams is doing his best to turn that around with Danks, Aramis and Josh Fields. Which of course also means Jermaine Dye, Jimmy Thome, Paul Konerko are also shipping out mid season. Now that I think about it, after July this division is going to look a whole lot shittier.
NINJA
Attendance rates? Horror show? Easy, Tom - it's not like I've been unemployed and living at home for ten months! Jeez.
AL EAST
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
When the Yanks threw 161 million at Sabathia, I said, in my standard Red Sox rationalization vernacular, "Sweet! He's gonna be 300 pounds by 2011 and his arm already has 384982034389039 (three straight divisions with ridiculously high random numbers without commas! Suck it!) pitches on it. We're gold." When the Yanks threw 82 million at A.J. Burnett, I said, in my standard Red Sox rationalization vernacular, "HA! Douche bags. You would think they learned their lesson from Carl Pavano!" When the Yanks threw 160 million at Mark Teixeira, I said, in my standard Red Sox rationalization vernacular, "...Fuck." If the new Yankee Stadium really is exactly like the old Yankee Stadium, then there's no reason the man can't hit 50 home runs for the next eight years. And that. Fucking. Blooowwwwwsssss. I think the Red Sox's additions are underrated, and I think they might have a better team on paper than the Yankees, but they've only finished ahead of those lovely twenty-five gentlemen from the Bronx in 2007 and 2008, despite the fact that they've probably had a better (on paper) team since 2003. I think the Yanks get around 97ish wins, and I think the Sox have around 94-95. It will be a great race.
I like Tampa, and their team is young and extremely talented...but I think they played ever-so-slightly over their heads last year. Yes, now they have David Price for a full season, and they stole Pat Burrell from AAAA...but I like them as a strong-but-semi-distant third. 88-90 wins. Think of it like when BC beat Carolina at Carolina, got their wangs stroked for three days, and lost to Harvard at home, except much, much better than that.
The Toronto Roy Halladays seem to have plateaued at 80 wins. Baltimore still can't pitch.
TOM
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
Ok, yes, this sounds like me being a homer, but I'm not the only one who thinks this. See, I'm not crazy.There's a logical reason why I think the Sox are going to pull this oneout. The Yankees have a lot more problems than I think people arewilling to admit or notice. That was not such a hot offense last year.And they lost Abreu and the Giambino - 200 RBIs and 50 hrs. Firstbaseman whose name I don't know how to spell (FBWNIDKHS) and NickSwisher are not going to replace that. Damon and Nady played out oftheir minds last year and I don't know if that's happening again.FBWNIDKHS is positively awful to start off the year and Mr. Aprilhimself is getting his hip fixed, so it could be a rough first month.Sabathia's a beast and there's no reason he won't be this year but AJBurnett has an arm made out of glass and cotton. Wang returning to formand Joba finally realizing his potential are the keys to the season,because there's not a tremendous amount of depth behind them in IanKennedy and Kei Igawa. The bullpen might be an issue or it could begreat. Defense is not going to be the Yankees forte.
Now, the case for the Sox is simple. They came one game away from theWorld Series with an injured Mike Lowell, David Ortiz and Josh Beckettand absolutley zero bench. Ortiz looks skinny and has his wristrepaired. Though I doubt Lowell's going to be very productive, the Soxhave tremendous finacial flexibility and there's no way they don't takea big contract off a struggling team midseason. Beckett looks like he'sback and we literally have nine guys who could start if need be. Thebullpen has a chance to be historically good. Lopez to Delcarmen toSaito to Masterson to Ramirez to Okajima to Paplebon is boner popping.Yes, there are a lot of questions, but if half our bargain shoppingworks out, the Sox are pretty damn good.
Tampa's good,yes. But I see a Colorado-esque drop-off here. Those kids were playingout of their minds last year and I don't think that the bullpen isrealllllly that good. It looked way better than it should have lastyear. Troy Percival's keeping that job for 19 seconds. I seeregressions by a couple of the starters, too. Still, we're probablygetting high 80s low 90s wins out of this team.
TheOrioles are about 3 years away from being good, which is just unfair.We need to go back to the old method AL and NL, and none of thisdivision crap. I'm literally going to be tearing my hair out everynight in 2012. An outfield of Jones, Markakis and Pie has thepotential to be amazing. We all know Wieters is going to be very good.They still have Mora and Roberts who are good ball players. ChrisTillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta are all top flight prospects andcould make it up by the end of the year to join Hendrickson and Guthrie.
Toronto is beyond awful - they were carried by pitching last year andnow half the staff is hurt. Besides Rios and Wells, everyone on thisteam is mediocre (McDonald and Barajas), fading (looking at you Rolenand Overbay) or Joe Inglett? Who?? JP Ricciardi must love those Wellsand BJ Ryan contracts right now. Wait, 18 million a year to anunderrated player you just made overrated? SURE! 9 Mil to a fat guywith a soul patch who had one good year? SUREEE!! Hey JP you probablyshould have spent less time arguing with Adam Dunn and more timerealizing what was going on in the four paragraphs above this.
NINJA
Tolstoy,
I do think our local nine could take the division. Your arguments arestrong, and NO ONE enjoys the statistical stylings of Nate Silver morethan I do. I hit fivethirtyeight.com more than Brett Myershits...gatorade coolers. And his wife. But this current Red Sox clubseems made for October, not May. Depth is key. Like I said, it's gonnabe fun.
PICKS
NINJA
MVP: Mark Teixeira
CY YOUNG: Jon Lester
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Matt Wieters
New York over Oakland in 5, Boston over Cleveland in 4, Boston over New York in 7
WORLD SERIES: Boston over Chicago in 5
TOM
MVP: Grady Sizemore
CY YOUNG: John Lackey
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: David Price
New York over Cleveland in 5, Boston over LA of Anaheim in 3, Boston over New York in 7
WORLD SERIES: Boston over Philadelphia in 6
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